Position & Longer Term Forecasting

     
 
 

It is really time to employ the Art of Forecasting your in trading life?

What is position trading? 

 

Position trading finding longer term holds than 30 minutes to 3 hours in day trading or 3 days to a week in swing trading.

 

Position trading is type of trading that people of patience use for creating wealth.!  These people have the stamina to wait out the peaks and valleys while they hold on to an instrument that is totally [from all indications] over sold . . .  once the turn in direction is empirically determined. 

 

For example, at this writing, December 1st, 2013, Coffee is significantly oversold but has begun to show bullish strength over the month of November after week following week of selling for years and months. At around 100, coffee is lower than any time in history since the Carter Administration and may be longer because my Tradestation only goes back to 1978.  During the 35 years in between then and now, Coffee has risen to 450 twice and 350 about 5 times. Coffee trades at $375 a point, so a 10 point move, which it has gained since early November is $3,750, a hundred point move could be $37,500 per contract.  It requires margin of just under $2,000 to hold over night and over month, so the only thing you need to be concerned about is which contract to hold and when to roll it to the next contract.  Brazil is the leader in world coffee production and Viet Nam is runner up but Viet Nam had no coffee production prior to 1990.  It takes a considerable number of coffee bushes to produce one pound of coffee.  And, for your own amusement, a rail car holds 37,500 pounds of coffee and that is what one contract is based upon, so, if you want to know more about coffee or any other commodity, it is all out there on the internet. Just Google it from here

 

Below is duplicate from the Swing Trading Forecast page.

 

Unless you really want to complicate your life too soon, let me suggest you put this option off for a while . . . while you learn to do just one aspect of trading really well.  Choose which one you want to do!  Then, embrace that element!  Practice your chosen method every day until you are consistently adding to your brokerage account every day while you extract excess gains [those funds not required to maintain your trading cash inventory].  Ask your broker to mail you a monthly [at first] then a weekly check.  What you take out of your account regularly is your actual measure of success.  For example, If you are not able to regularly extract $500 a month you are not yet successful.  When you are able to request a $500 check each week, you are successful... each week, meaning 3 out of 4 weeks a month, 2 out of 3 months every quarter for a year.  This is success!  Anything short of it is NOT!

 

For example, if your are successfully trading a 3 contract lot and sometimes doing two 3 lots at a time, you need only so much in your trading account.  How much?  Well, off hand, I'd say you will need about $15K.  But you don't need to start off with that level of account. You can start with only $5K.  Leave the other ten in an account from where you may quickly add to your trading account when it gets kicked in the chin!  So, start slow . . . start on the NinjaTrader simulator.  Trade on the simulator until you are so skilled, that your simulator account has grown to double . . . double from $5,000 or $10,000 where you start it.  The "factory" provides you way too much:  a $100,000!  Overkill! 

 

I do not care how much you are worth financially.  I believe all aspiring traders should start from the same root. If you are rich, pretend you are not rich.  Act like every other want-to-be and start with a modest account.  Most brokers will allow you to start with $3,000.  That is enough to intraday trade instruments set at $500 intraday margin requirement, like eMini S&P or perhaps, the Euro Future; however, if you want to trade light sweet crude oil, you will need $1,000 per contract for intraday trading.  With that $3,000 account you cannot do a three lot in oil!  So, $5,000 is better!

 

Do not hurry into trading too many contracts or too frequently during the day!  Concentrate on one or two hours a day during the best time of day to trade your chosen entity.

Please accept our invitation to try Live Trade Radio: 

Just ask Richard@WorldWideTraders.com for your trial.

       

 

RISK Disclosure:  Keep this in mind: Commodities, options, stock index futures, metals, interest rate derivatives and currency futures [COSMIC] trading is high risk.  Prior positive results are no indication of future results.  Consult your own financial advisor before getting involved in futures with real money.  We provide education, not trading advice.  We expect viewers to develop and practice their skill on a trading simulator platform. That is why we encourage everyone to try the www.NinjaTrader.com supported by www.MirusFutures.com.

 

 
 
 
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